Vacillation

[madbaker]

We need to dump the 10-year-old Saturn wagon. It's got 145K and was never designed to go that far. I have regular (and increasingly expensive) maintenance performed, but entropy is still winning. Mostly little things - the indoor lights are broken, lots of plastic has broken, the driver seat belt holder is duct-taped together, etc. But it's also burning oil and sounding rougher and rougher. Basically, it could die at any time, or need so much repair that functionally it's the same thing.

We've been looking hard at the hybrid Toyota Highlander. It meets a number of our needs/wishes for SCA camping, and the mileage is lousy for a hybrid, but still far better than a regular Highlander or other light SUV/car crossover.

But.
Toyota hasn't produced many for this year. They're very popular, especially in the Bay Area. Each dealership is expecting about 2 per month, and they have hundreds of people interested.

So many of the dealers are putting them up on E-Bay. Which I don't fault, really - it allows people to get stupid and overbid if that's a "fair" trade for getting the vehicle now. I'm not so willing, which means I'll probably have to wait until next year. The tax break for hybrids goes down substantially next year (and probably away the year after). That's not a deal-killer, but it factors in.

See, I looked at a number of articles at Edmunds.com; while generally positive, they point out that at regular base prices and current gas prices, hybrids cost more in the first four to five years. If I wanted the hybrid I'd have to overpay, so it might push out the break-even point to six or seven years. Again, that's not a deal-killer; I expect to keep this car for another ten or so.

The other side of this is the possibility of going out, say this weekend, and buying a regular one. Right now. Getting rid of all the annoyances and worries embedded in the Saturn. Allowing us to do SCA events more comfortably. Having a CD player and air conditioning. (Which is a big deal with a black car, even in the temperate Bay Area.) Right now.

So it'd cost me more after five or more years. Is that a deal-breaker? When maybe the technology will be better by then. (The Prius is on the way to its third recall.) I've been planning to get a new car this year for some time. Am I willing to wait for exactly the right thing?

Shrug. I'm not leaning one way or the other... but last week I wasn't undecided.

What I'm reading: Andrew Bridgeford, The Hidden History of the Bayeux Tapestry (yes, I am a geek)

Comments

[roswtr.livejournal.com]

I haven't looked at the hybrid Highlander, but I did look at the hybrid Escape a while back. Like the Highlander, the mileage is lousy for a hybrid, but that's because people still expect the engine to be as powerful as the non-hybrid version; thus it doesn't rely on the electric power source as much.

Which, in my view, makes it almost not worth buying a hybrid SUV at all. Especially with the increased early year costs and disappearing tax breaks.

I'm hoping that we can replace the pickup in the next month or so, too, but at this point, I'm just planning to go to our friendly neighborhood Ford dealership (where we've bought our last several cars) and pick up a nice, used SUV-like thing. Since it'll be a "business" vehicle, mostly dedicated mastersantiago to and from magic shows, with the occasional SCA camping trip thrown in for good measure, it won't run up a lot of miles, and I won't mind waiting for large vehicle hybrid technology to improve.

[callistotoni.livejournal.com]

I've been kinda distrustful about the economy of the hybrids in the long term. I admit I haven't done any research on this. But I've heard (and I'm ready to believe) that the hybrids are more technically complicated than regular cars. So what happens when you have to go to the shop? If something breaks you'll need to go to the dealer. OK, so under warrenty that should be free/low cost. But what about the long term? I gotta wonder about the car's battery, for example.

I've also heard that the claims of hybrid milage has been overblown, and that the on the ground reality it that they don't get any better milage than a high-milage regualar car. What does the gas Toyota Highlander get? Is the claimed milage/gallon all that much different? If the milage was close than I'd be inclined to go for the fuel Highlander, for immediacy, lack of inflated price, and potentially more "robust" technology.

But hey, that's just my call.

[fionnbharro.livejournal.com]

Oil is going to get infinitely cheaper, which will make driving 'regular' gas-powered vehicles cheaper -- so cheap, in fact, the government will *Pay* us to drive them.

Gotta love the Iraqi war!

Go Troops! W00T!


Seriously; New cars -- even the gas-powered ones are Good Things. Spend a week or two figuring out what you want, then do the faxing-for-bids thing. Save a coupla'thousand *now*, and use the savings to pay for the fuel for a few years.

[falzalot.livejournal.com]

Y'know, I am still totally in love with the Prius, but if I had to buy a car right this second, I would probably get a Hyundai Tucson. Less than 20K, and the mileage is comperable to my Subaru. Which isn't great, but hey, I've got a carpool now. :->

Cargo Van

[finickynarcane.livejournal.com]

As long as you're talking about vehicles... Do you know anyone who wants to sell a very reliable cargo van for dirt cheap? I need it to haul my work and display materials to shows (and to go to the occasional SCA event).

[madbaker.livejournal.com]

Whereas I will run up a lot of miles -- my commute adds up. As I'm sure you are well aware.

Of course, that much freeway driving takes down hybrid mileage, too.

[iricus.livejournal.com]

My 2 cents. The Subaru Forester we bought has been doing very well. the technology is very old school as far as the engine and drive line/axles goes. this means the bugs have been worked out many years ago. Mileage has been 24+ for regular commute/run around town. and on the long runs it will hit 27+.
My only bit of info on the hybrids is that the batteries are very expensive to replace when they burn out. IIRC in the range of $3000.00 for the set.

[roswtr.livejournal.com]

Can you switch the vehicle plan? Use the smaller, more gas efficient vehicle for commuting and leave the behemoth for camping?

[madbaker.livejournal.com]

Then we'd have to buy two cars.

[farmount.livejournal.com]

OK, I've got to weigh in on this one since I do own a hybrid car -- the Honda Insight. Two seats, tiny car. I've gotten over 100K on it already (I drive a lot) and now the average MPG has declined from 53 to 48. Also remember, I push this little car up into the mountains DAILY. One person noted that on the highway the mileage "goes down" -- this may be true for the Toyota cars but NOT for the Honda Insight (nor for the Civic, I would presume). I have heard of Insights getting around 80MPG for long-distance highway driving, and one of these days I plan to take the I-5 down to LA to see how my little car does.

Re: overall costs. Yes, I do take it to the dealer when things go spoing. Realistically, that hasn't happened too much and I just bring it in for regular maintenance. The tires were really costly but now Costco is carrying the tires (at $60/tire, what a deal!) which fit my car.

Yes, I know I'm using something that is in beta test. It still makes me happy to see my weird-looking two seater in the parking lot full of SUVs.

[madbaker.livejournal.com]

The beta-test aspect doesn't bug me as much as the cost/benefit analysis, and having to overpay to get one. (Go figure.)

[madbaker.livejournal.com]

We looked at the Forester. Our main beef with it is that the payload capacity isn't much more than the Saturn. We want something that can take the pavilion without overstressing the car. (My comment the first time we loaded the poles - "The car body isn't supposed to be that far down over the wheels, is it?")

[cvirtue.livejournal.com]

Is it the hybrid aspect you're intrigued by, or the SUV? Because if it's the hybrid, there are several other options, as you know. Don't pay the impatience tax; it's hefty!

My sister has had her Prius for 2+ years now and puts an incredible amount of mileage on it. It is working well, still very high mpg, above 50. Her biggest problem is still that because it's on electric at slow speeds, people will walk into her car while it's moving. Apparently most people detect cars by sound, not by vision.

If you'd like to email and ask her about it, drop me a note.

[madbaker.livejournal.com]

There are two issues -- we want a car with more payload capacity for SCA events. It's also the car I will be commuting in, so decent gas mileage is desirable.

The Highlander hybrid was looking like the best intersection in that Venn diagram. Not so much now, though.