What If?

[madbaker]

On the long drive back up from Southern California, Dawn and I came up with an interesting alternate history idea, prompted by her Renaissance Italy history class last semester and my recent re-reading of Turtledove’s Ruled Britannia. What made it fun was not just posing the what-if, but thinking through how it plausibly could happen.

What if the Protestant Reformation had never happened?

Here’s the sequence, with historical notes in italics to give context.

Pope Leo X (pope 1513-1521) was a Medici. Even the Vatican admits that he “was not a competent ruler and not greatly interested in the advancement of the church.” He liked huge parties, elaborate banquets and hunts (and little boys); he was Raphael’s patron and continued rebuilding St. Peter’s. Thus the constant need for more cash, leading to selling indulgences, offices and appointments, and other massive corruption.

Luther, in 1517 when he posts his 95 theses, was still a devout Catholic and wanted to reform the church, not split from it. Assume that Leo X dies in an embarrassing and highly public fashion: during one of his extravagant hunts, while simultaneously negotiating the sale of several cardinal’s offices and cavorting with one of his favorite naked little boys, Leo is struck by lightning. This obvious sign of God’s displeasure leads the cardinals to elect Paul III as Pope, a reformer.

(Paul III was actually elected in 1534, after the hard-line Hadrian VI and Clement VII; he received quite a few votes both times. Clement VII underestimated the effects of the Lutheran split and made things worse. Paul III really was something of a reformer, who started the Counter-Reformation and favored reconciliation with the Protestants.)

So Paul III reforms the Church, pulling back its claim to temporal power in favor of re-establishing its primacy in the spiritual world. Paul summons Luther to Rome, but instead of excommunication, he appoints Luther a cardinal in charge of reform. When Paul III dies, Luther becomes Pope Paul IV. (Luther resolved his 1513 crisis of faith by reading the scriptures, especially the letters of Paul. Plus he’d be following in Paul III’s footsteps of reform.)

What impact would this have? The Church probably would not have taken the side of Francis I against Holy Roman Emperor Charles V (who won anyway, and sacked Rome); this would make Charles the (even more) pre-eminent political power in Europe, and making the Holy Roman Empire a more stable political unit.
The real Paul IV would not have been elected Pope in 1555. (Paul IV was a fanatic, using the Inquisition and torture with great ease. Paul IV also forced Jewish communities to live in ghettoes.)

Henry VIII would not have passed the Act of Supremacy, making him the head of the Church of England, because the precedent of splitting with Rome would not have been set; Katherine of Aragon would have stayed Queen (especially since she was also the aunt of Charles V). Mary would have been able to wed Philip II of Spain much earlier, and might have had children, forestalling the reigns of Elizabeth and James I…

If I was writing a novel, I’d start there. But I work in the financial industry, so I have no clue what comes next.

But it was fun even getting there.

Comments

[fionnbharro.livejournal.com]

Call me Fionn the Impressed on this one. Good work on the historical/political work-through.

The story's been done before, very much along the lines you've proposed. Unfortunately, I don't have a copy, forget the title and author, and haven't actually read it myself (only a review, and remarked to myself how much I'd like to read that thing).

I'll check some sources, and see what I can come up with.